Hurricane warnings for Mexico; tornadoes and floods for the Midwest U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 14:26 GMT je la 20an de junio 2011

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The outer spiral bands of intensifying Tropical Storm Beatriz have reached the coast of Mexico between Acapulco and Puerto Vallarta, and a hurricane warning is now in effect for the coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo northwestward to La Fortuna. Beatriz is headed to the northwest under the influence of the large trough of low pressure over the Midwest U.S. that is causing severe weather and flooding rains there. As Beatriz nears the coast Tuesday morning, the trough may have progressed far enough eastwards so that Beatriz wil miss making a direct hit on the coast, and instead turn west and move out to sea as a ridge of high pressure builds in. Regardless of whether the core of the storm makes landfall or not, the major threat from Beatriz will be heavy rains. Rainfall amounts of 4 - 8 inches will be common along the coast, and up to a foot of rain is likely in some mountainous regions, causing significant flooding and dangerous mudslides. NHC is giving Manzanillo a 5% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds of 74 mph or greater; these odds drop to just 1% for Puerto Vallarta, and 8% for Barra Navidad. With ocean temperatures between 29 - 30°C and wind shear predicted to drop to 10 knots later today, there is no reason why Beatriz couldn't intensify into a Category 1 hurricane by Tuesday. NHC is giving a 15% chance the Beatriz could intensify into a Category 2 or stronger hurricane. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to visit Beatriz this afternoon to gauge its strength. Satellite loops reveal that Beatriz has become more organized this morning, and Microwave satellite imagery indicates that Beatriz has built about 50% of an eyewall. Once this process is complete, more rapid strengthening is likely.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Beatriz taken at 8am EDT June 20, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Significant severe weather outbreak and flooding rains possible today in the Midwest
Severe thunderstorms developed along a warm front stretching from Eastern Colorado through Nebraska and into Iowa and Wisconsin last night. The result was an active evening with numerous severe thunderstorm, tornado, and flash flood warnings. Hail to the size of baseballs and winds to 77 miles per hour were reported at Champion and Imperial, Nebraska. Many other locations reported large hail and winds greater than 60 miles per hour, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged thirteen preliminary tornado reports in Nebraska, Colorado, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The large, slow-moving low pressure system responsible for yesterday's severe weather will touch off a new round of severe weather this afternoon, and the Storm Prediction Center has placed Eastern Nebraska, Western Iowa, and portions of three other states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather. Baseball and softball-sized hail is likely in some of the stronger supercell thunderstorms that form, and there is also the risk of a few strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.



Figure 2. Today's severe risk outlook from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Also of concern is the large area of 2 - 4 inches of rain this storm is likely to bring to the Missouri River watershed this week. As I discussed in detail in Friday's post, the flood control system on the Missouri River is being strained beyond its designed limits, and this week's rains are likely to worsen existing flooding and potentially cause new levee breaches on the river.


Figure 3. Predicted rainfall for the coming five days (top image) shows that a large region of 2 - 4 inches is expected over the Missouri River watershed (bottom image.) Image credit: NOAA/HPC and Wikipedia.

Critical fire conditions to give Arizona a break this week
Powerful southwest winds gusting to 50 mph affected much of Arizona yesterday, producing some of the worst fire conditions the parched state has seen all year. Sierra Vista in Southeast Arizona experienced sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 50 mph yesterday, causing a major spread of the dangerous Monument Fire. With air temperatures of 94° and a humidity of just 13%, it was a tough day for firefighting. The 33-square mile fire jumped fire control lines and surged into the town, forcing the evacuation of thousands of people. However, after a difficult 4-day stretch of critical fire conditions, the winds will give Arizona a break today. Winds under 10 mph are expected in Sierra Vista, and strong winds and critical fire conditions are not expected in the state until at least Friday, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. This respite should give firefighters a chance to gain the upper hand on the three significant fires burning in the eastern part of the state. Arizona's largest fire on record, the massive 800-square mile Wallow Fire, should be mostly contained by the end of the week if this forecast holds up. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the Wallow Fire is a long way from being the largest fire in U.S. history. That distinction belongs to the great Peshtigo Fire of 1871, which burned 5,938 square miles of Wisconsin and Michigan.

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, with no tropical cyclones predicted over the next seven days by the reliable computer models.

Jeff Masters

Questionable Building Site! (Nikongranny)
From the first time I saw this house starting to go up I questioned whether this was a safe place. Turns out "not this year."
Questionable Building Site!
Monument Fire, Tuesday (paperbag)
The Monument Fire near Sierra Vista looked like this from Bisbee 20 miles away at sunset Tuesday June 14.
Monument Fire, Tuesday
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Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
water getting very warm fast!!
Gulf Stream too!
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
It's beginning. :)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION[..]


Finally. :) My PWS needed a nice rinse.
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Quoting beell:


Ain't it great to be normal?


Yes! Strangely exciting. We need rain bad. Lol.
Member Since: 24-a de aŭgusto Posts: 0 Comments: 252
Quoting alfabob:

Not sure, I think it is just related to the magnetic fields and plasma density. But the holes do emit beams of high density plasma or solar winds, so I think there might be some influence here by the 23rd.


Thanks; I don't think we have got a direact shot by one of these in a while will be intreasting.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Already had a brief shower in TX City, Cumulus buiding, some towering offshore. Gulf is priming up along TX coast.


Just north of Hobby, RitaEvac. I was caught in a deluge that consisted of 3 drops. ............ Strange. I remember when 3 drops of rain, in Texas, was not worth mentioning. Now it makes the weather blogs!
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Recon finding 30-40 mph winds nearly 90 miles away from the Center. They have added a * by the data, meaning it is suspect.
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116. Skyepony (Mod)
The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 0.8ºC
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36 beell "Not having documents and from another country. No law against that. Right? ;-) "

meh... Being illegal is as American as mom's apple pie. eg Other than during traffic jams and while looking for an address in a strange neighborhood, nearly all drivers travel 5to10mph above the speed limit; faster on "back country" roads and freeways.
If failure to have proper documentation were truly thought of as a crime, everyone who wears a suit&tie to work would be behind bars.
Member Since: 21-a de aŭgusto Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Bonnet Carre Spillway now closed



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112. beell
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
It's beginning. :)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SATELLITE DERIVED TPW PLOTS INDICATE NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES


Ain't it great to be normal?
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111. Skyepony (Mod)
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110. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting alfabob:

Yea I think land messed with it because it looks like the winds are wrapping around fine on RGB. Inflow looks extensive also.


Windsat is a few hours old while Beatriz has organized alot in that short time. That ASCAT you posted is from early lastnight & is west of the area of the storm.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


What?
Your 6.5 Earthquake!
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Tonight will see tropical moisture surge inland with low level speed convergence developing near the coast develop numerous showers and thunderstorms over the water after 300am. Activity will advance toward the coast by daybreak Tuesday and then surge inland on a well developed seabreeze front as surface winds finally weaken
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Quoting Waltanater:
...and how many dead?


What?
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Time: 17:10:30Z
Coordinates: 16.05N 100.75W
Acft. Static Air Press: 497.7 mb (~ 14.70 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 5,901 meters (~ 19,360 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 289 meters (~ 948 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 186° at 31 knots (From the S at ~ 35.6 mph)
Air Temp: -4.4°C (~ 24.1°F)
Dew Pt: -15.0°C (~ 5.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 33 knots (~ 37.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 31 knots (~ 35.6 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr (~ 0.16 in/hr)
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Quoting alfabob:

Large coronal hole.


That appeared after it released the gas right "ummm never mind".
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Magnitude
6.5
Date-Time
Monday, June 20, 2011 at 16:35:59 UTC
Monday, June 20, 2011 at 12:35:59 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
21.898S, 68.299W
Depth
117 km (72.7 miles)
Region
ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
Distances
87 km (54 miles) NE of Calama, Antofagasta, Chile
196 km (121 miles) E of Tocopilla, Antofagasta, Chile
224 km (139 miles) SW of Uyuni, Bolivia
1297 km (805 miles) N of SANTIAGO, Region Metropolitana, Chile



Average number of Earthquakes per Year per 12,300 km2, Magnitude 5 and Greater
Intermediate Earthquakes: Depth 70-300 km


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Quoting Patrap:


I always did like it when a storm smiled at me!
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That part of La needs this, also....here's hoping for a lot more to come for all.

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It's beginning. :)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1114 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

.UPDATE...DEEP TROF OVER WEST TEXAS CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS
THIS MORNING BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE
FOR SOME TIME. IN RESPONSE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE TAPED
INTO DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY ADVANCING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE DERIVED TPW PLOTS INDICATE NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH VALUES GREATER THAN 130
PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF.

DID GO AHEAD AND RAISE POPS A BIT TODAY WITH CURRENT COVERAGE ON
THE RADAR. ALSO LOWERED THE MAX TEMPERATURES A TAD AND RAISED THE
DEW POINTS.
Member Since: 24-a de aŭgusto Posts: 0 Comments: 252
Visible satellite will tell the story about the moisture surge in the Gulf, PWS values will be approaching 2.0 tomm.
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Recon descending into Beatriz, Google Earth Link
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94. Skyepony (Mod)
Fresh Windsat though a few hours old. Being so close to land I kinda want to question it but then again land was disrupting..
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Already had a brief shower in TX City, Cumulus buiding, some towering offshore. Gulf is priming up along TX coast.
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With front sagging down into North TX and the gulf moisture increasing, we should see some fireworks over the Gulf tomm, we'll see what happens.
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Firefighters and arson. Wait a few seconds for the coverpage to be replaced by the article.
Member Since: 21-a de aŭgusto Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
we need a tropical storm so bad! One of those that just makes torrential rains for days and days and doesnt hurt anything!
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Flood is very dangerous. I remeber when was big water in some years ago. Big cataclism :/



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GOM dry air shrinking somewhat....

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


interesting feature


it looks like your avatar!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Almost? It still has about 50% to go :P


i said the same thing:)
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Beatriz may hit cat 3 before it begins to weaken 36 hours is a long time in that hot bath its in now.
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456? the character was mentioning starting a surf club for its little island last yr their neighboring islands all had started teams. . great character on the forum and i would not be surprised to see it during cv season
Member Since: 11-a de septembro Posts: 1 Comments: 4888
Quoting cyclonekid:
Beatriz almost has a complete eyewall.



Almost? It still has about 50% to go :P
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thaks dr masters
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Quoting cyclonekid:
Beatriz almost has a complete eyewall.



1/2 of a eyewall
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Hurricane Hunters are on their way to Beatriz.
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71. DisasterResponder 4:43 PM GMT on June 20, 2011
The Horseshoe Two fire in AZ had sustained winds of 40-45 mph and a wind gust of 81 mph yesterday. It ripped the door off of a water tanker. Firefighters spent most of yesterday in "safety zones" and everyone is doing fine.


thank you for the update.
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Quoting MahFL:


Would that be June 1st 2012 ?.....lol.

LOL, don't take weather advice from someone who doesn't know what month it is.
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Quoting TallyNole:

The GFS model has something coming up the central GOM around June 1st. That is way out there in terms of modeling into the future.


Would that be June 1st 2012 ?.....lol.
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Beatriz almost has a complete eyewall.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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