Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Hurricane warnings for Mexico; tornadoes and floods for the Midwest U.S.

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:26 GMT je la 20an de junio 2011

The outer spiral bands of intensifying Tropical Storm Beatriz have reached the coast of Mexico between Acapulco and Puerto Vallarta, and a hurricane warning is now in effect for the coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo northwestward to La Fortuna. Beatriz is headed to the northwest under the influence of the large trough of low pressure over the Midwest U.S. that is causing severe weather and flooding rains there. As Beatriz nears the coast Tuesday morning, the trough may have progressed far enough eastwards so that Beatriz wil miss making a direct hit on the coast, and instead turn west and move out to sea as a ridge of high pressure builds in. Regardless of whether the core of the storm makes landfall or not, the major threat from Beatriz will be heavy rains. Rainfall amounts of 4 - 8 inches will be common along the coast, and up to a foot of rain is likely in some mountainous regions, causing significant flooding and dangerous mudslides. NHC is giving Manzanillo a 5% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds of 74 mph or greater; these odds drop to just 1% for Puerto Vallarta, and 8% for Barra Navidad. With ocean temperatures between 29 - 30°C and wind shear predicted to drop to 10 knots later today, there is no reason why Beatriz couldn't intensify into a Category 1 hurricane by Tuesday. NHC is giving a 15% chance the Beatriz could intensify into a Category 2 or stronger hurricane. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to visit Beatriz this afternoon to gauge its strength. Satellite loops reveal that Beatriz has become more organized this morning, and Microwave satellite imagery indicates that Beatriz has built about 50% of an eyewall. Once this process is complete, more rapid strengthening is likely.

Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Beatriz taken at 8am EDT June 20, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Significant severe weather outbreak and flooding rains possible today in the Midwest
Severe thunderstorms developed along a warm front stretching from Eastern Colorado through Nebraska and into Iowa and Wisconsin last night. The result was an active evening with numerous severe thunderstorm, tornado, and flash flood warnings. Hail to the size of baseballs and winds to 77 miles per hour were reported at Champion and Imperial, Nebraska. Many other locations reported large hail and winds greater than 60 miles per hour, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged thirteen preliminary tornado reports in Nebraska, Colorado, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The large, slow-moving low pressure system responsible for yesterday's severe weather will touch off a new round of severe weather this afternoon, and the Storm Prediction Center has placed Eastern Nebraska, Western Iowa, and portions of three other states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather. Baseball and softball-sized hail is likely in some of the stronger supercell thunderstorms that form, and there is also the risk of a few strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.

Figure 2. Today's severe risk outlook from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Also of concern is the large area of 2 - 4 inches of rain this storm is likely to bring to the Missouri River watershed this week. As I discussed in detail in Friday's post, the flood control system on the Missouri River is being strained beyond its designed limits, and this week's rains are likely to worsen existing flooding and potentially cause new levee breaches on the river.

Figure 3. Predicted rainfall for the coming five days (top image) shows that a large region of 2 - 4 inches is expected over the Missouri River watershed (bottom image.) Image credit: NOAA/HPC and Wikipedia.

Critical fire conditions to give Arizona a break this week
Powerful southwest winds gusting to 50 mph affected much of Arizona yesterday, producing some of the worst fire conditions the parched state has seen all year. Sierra Vista in Southeast Arizona experienced sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 50 mph yesterday, causing a major spread of the dangerous Monument Fire. With air temperatures of 94° and a humidity of just 13%, it was a tough day for firefighting. The 33-square mile fire jumped fire control lines and surged into the town, forcing the evacuation of thousands of people. However, after a difficult 4-day stretch of critical fire conditions, the winds will give Arizona a break today. Winds under 10 mph are expected in Sierra Vista, and strong winds and critical fire conditions are not expected in the state until at least Friday, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. This respite should give firefighters a chance to gain the upper hand on the three significant fires burning in the eastern part of the state. Arizona's largest fire on record, the massive 800-square mile Wallow Fire, should be mostly contained by the end of the week if this forecast holds up. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the Wallow Fire is a long way from being the largest fire in U.S. history. That distinction belongs to the great Peshtigo Fire of 1871, which burned 5,938 square miles of Wisconsin and Michigan.

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, with no tropical cyclones predicted over the next seven days by the reliable computer models.

Jeff Masters

Questionable Building Site! (Nikongranny)

From the first time I saw this house starting to go up I questioned whether this was a safe place. Turns out "not this year."

Monument Fire, Tuesday (paperbag)

The Monument Fire near Sierra Vista looked like this from Bisbee 20 miles away at sunset Tuesday June 14.

a small funnel (nnotof)

a small funnel

Categories: Tornado Flood Hurricane

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651. HurricaneHunterJoe 06:05 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
closest radar site in mexico is not working at this time Member Since: 18-a de septembro Posts: 0 Comments: 2690

652. Ylee 06:07 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
Member Since: 03-a de februaro Posts: 65 Comments: 11324

653. Ylee 06:08 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
Sorry, jason, I should've backtracked further... Member Since: 03-a de februaro Posts: 65 Comments: 11324

654. HurricaneHunterJoe 06:08 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
Member Since: 18-a de septembro Posts: 0 Comments: 2690

656. FrankZapper 06:10 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
This heat wave and drought have Elway drinking again! :) Evening TraumaBoyy. Hoping your night is quiet and full of coffee and donut breaks! Member Since: 26-a de majo Posts: 0 Comments: 1193

657. earthlydragonfly 06:29 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
Morning folks 34w 6n looks pretty interesting no? Member Since: 01-a de julio Posts: 10 Comments: 1649

659. TomTaylor 06:35 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: It is possible, although unlikely at this time, that Beatriz has reached her peak. Land interaction is only going to be a bigger problem from here on out, and by tomorrow night/Wednesday morning, it will begin to enter significantly cooler waters and dry air. I doubt this system will become a Category 2 hurricane, and I may have to trim back my 85-90 mph peak to more like 75-80 mph. Agreed. I was expecting a cat 2, perhaps high end cat 2 if it stayed further away from land. However, Beatrice has had plans of her own and has been hugging the coastline for a while now, and has come increasingly closer to land. At least 1/3rd of the storm is over land now. Not to mention the land is very rugged and mountainous. Additionally, this system is fairly large and larger systems can take a while to get well organized, as noted by the ragged looking core. So it makes sense that this system hasn't really intensified in the last 6hrs. Since the storm is expected to move over cooler SSTs, a drier and stabler air mass, as well as increased interaction with land, I don't expect this storm to become much stronger. If it continues on a more eastern or northern course, riding the coastline, then I'd say its reached its peak Member Since: 24-a de aŭgusto Posts: 18 Comments: 3899

660. sunlinepr 06:39 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
Member Since: 02-a de aŭgusto Posts: 19 Comments: 8447

661. sunlinepr 06:40 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
Member Since: 02-a de aŭgusto Posts: 19 Comments: 8447

664. sunlinepr 06:56 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
That island "Maria Madre" could be hit by Beatriz Member Since: 02-a de aŭgusto Posts: 19 Comments: 8447

665. TomTaylor 07:00 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
Quoting KoritheMan: Hey guys, I just completed a blog entry on Beatriz. Please check it out. nice write up kori Member Since: 24-a de aŭgusto Posts: 18 Comments: 3899

667. TomTaylor 07:09 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
Quoting alfabob: Could be a close call on those islands, if it does continue to become annular then steering is going to be harder to predict. Definitely going to cause major damage all along the coastline up to around Puerto Vallarta. I highly doubt Beatriz will become annular Member Since: 24-a de aŭgusto Posts: 18 Comments: 3899

669. TomTaylor 07:20 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
Quoting alfabob: Just remember who called the last annular cane. As of right now, Beatriz doesn't look annular at all. Look at the microwave image loop sunlinepr posted and the ir rainbow pic you posted. The intense convection around the core is extremely lop sided, with the large majority of it on the western side. Also seen on the microwave imagery is some spiral banding. Finally, the eye feature is ragged, small, and not very cleared out - there are still many mid to low level clouds in the eye. For Beatriz to become annular, the intense convection around the eye would have to become near symmetrical, spiral banding would have to become minimal to non existent, the eye would need to become better defined and clear out. Simply put, Beatriz is far from annular. And due to its extremely close proximity to land and the presence of rough mountainous terrain over land, as well as its forecasted track over cooler SSTs and a more stable and dry air mass within the next 2 days, I highly doubt this will become an annular hurricane. Member Since: 24-a de aŭgusto Posts: 18 Comments: 3899

671. sunlinepr 07:24 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
Seems like the only break to become annular, would be if it moves far from land, and keeps in high SSTs Member Since: 02-a de aŭgusto Posts: 19 Comments: 8447

672. KoritheMan 07:25 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
Quoting alfabob: Just remember who called the last annular cane. Staying humble is the biggest challenge in this field. Member Since: 07-a de marto Posts: 409 Comments: 15445

673. TomTaylor 07:27 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
Quoting alfabob: There is very minimal banding and the lopsided feature is another sign of annular development. Moisture in the surrounding area will continue to be pulled into the center and a circular flow will begin to surround it; that is what that v in the convection means, it is being rapidly pulled. There is already a dense moisture field in the center covering most of the eye. satellite interpretation is very subjective so I'm going to drop this argument. Time will tell what happens Member Since: 24-a de aŭgusto Posts: 18 Comments: 3899

675. sunlinepr 07:34 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
Member Since: 02-a de aŭgusto Posts: 19 Comments: 8447

676. HadesGodWyvern 07:42 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
Japan Meteorological Agency Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33 TROPICAL STORM HAIMA (T1104) 15:00 PM JST June 21 2011 ==================================== SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Northern South China Sea At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Haima (996 hPa) located at 19.1N 115.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots. Dvorak Intensity: T2.5 Gale Force Winds =============== 200 NM from the center Forecast and Intensity ======================= 24 HRS: 20.5N 113.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) 48 HRS: 22.0N 110.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression) Member Since: 24-a de majo Posts: 43 Comments: 36686

677. HadesGodWyvern 07:56 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FALCON 11:00 PM PhST June 21 2011 ====================================== The Low Pressure Area east of Visayas has developed into a Tropical Depression and was named "FALCON" At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Falcon located at 11.7°N 132.3°E or 670 km east of Borongan, Easter Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 9 knots. Additional Information ======================= TD "Falcon" and TD "Egay" are expected to bring occasional rains over the country becoming widespread over the western section of Luzon. The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today. Member Since: 24-a de majo Posts: 43 Comments: 36686

678. jamesrainier 07:58 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
Tornado Warning 2011-06-21 03:47:00 EDT until 2011-06-21 04:30:00 EDT 247 am CDT Tue Jun 21 2011 The National Weather Service in San Angelo has issued a * Tornado Warning for... northern Coleman County in north central Texas... * until 330 am CDT * at 245 am CDT...a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was 4 miles east of Glen Cove...or 10 miles west of Coleman...moving southeast at 25 mph Member Since: 01-a de junio Posts: 0 Comments: 69

679. aspectre 08:35 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
616 alfabob "Probably the worst case scenario for Mexico right now; its following the path NHC has up, which is not moving inland." Probably the best case scenario for Mexico right now. Most of Mexico has been in a Texas-style drought. "About 40 percent of Mexico's territory has been experiencing the worst drought in seven decades, President Felipe Calderon said. Mexico experienced its second worst drought in 60 years in 2009, while 2010 was the rainiest year on record... There are areas in Mexico where it has not rained since September..." As is, HurricaneBeatriz is reported to be dropping precipitation as far east as MexicoCity... as well as wetting the formerly dry air flowing into the Gulf of Campeche. Which is good news inregard to future tropical development leading toward rainfall for both Texas and easternMexico. In the near term, the best case scenario would be for TropicalStormBeatriz to turn northnorthwestward to continue following the coastline up through the center of the Gulf of California (Sea of Cortez) all the way to YumaArizona, then head east as it breaks up. Not likely given the NHC's predicted path westward (or given the SSTs and atmospheric conditions), but one can always wishcast. 138feet(~42metres) above sea-level, inland 62miles(~100kilometres) north of the Sea of Cortez Member Since: 21-a de aŭgusto Posts: 0 Comments: 4846

680. KoritheMan 08:40 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 210838 TCDEP2 HURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011 200 AM PDT TUE JUN 21 2011 RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BEATRIZ HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED 20-25 N MI WIDE EYE...A FEATURE THAT ALSO MADE A SHORT-LIVED APPEARANCE IN INFRARED IMAGERY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 90 KT FROM SAB AND 77 KT FROM TAFB...WITH AUTOMATED ESTIMATES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN OF 90 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT... AND THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL ARE COLDER THAN -80C...AND THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 330/10. BEATRIZ IS HEADING FOR A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING NORTH OF BEATRIZ. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD GRADUALLY CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE LEFT...WITH A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK EXPECTED BY 48 HR. HOWEVER...BEFORE THIS TURN OCCURS...THE CENTER IS LIKELY TO PASS OVER OR NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND CABO CORRIENTES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING...AND THE MAXIMUM WINDS COULD REACH 85-90 KT BEFORE THE CENTER INTERACTS WITH THE COAST OF MEXICO. AFTER THAT...A COMBINATION OF LAND INTERACTION AND A FORECAST TRACK OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE BEATRIZ TO WEAKEN. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT LAND INTERACTION WILL NOT CAUSE A RAPID DISINTEGRATION...WITH THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY DYING OUT OVER THE COLDER WATER WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION IS SERIOUSLY DISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO. IF THIS OCCURS...BEATRIZ WOULD WEAKEN FASTER AND DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 18.8N 104.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 19.5N 105.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 20.4N 106.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 20.7N 108.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 20.9N 109.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 21.0N 112.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 21.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 26/0600Z 21.0N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN Member Since: 07-a de marto Posts: 409 Comments: 15445

681. Vincent4989 08:49 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
Quoting HadesGodWyvern: Aussie, 99W is just trying to develop east of the Philippines. I was already watching that LPA. looks interesting. Member Since: 13-a de novembro Posts: 2 Comments: 728

682. AtHomeInTX 09:01 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
Quoting alfabob: I would say that the chances are very slim, mountains and whatnot would make it difficult for the convection to make it that far. I don't know about that. Meet Hurricane Rosa 1994. I remember this flood. We were in the process of moving into our brand new house. It was a mess to say the least! Rita moved us out 11 years later. Sigh. ;) United States Rosa sent moisture into the United States, which, in combination with humidity drawn north from the Gulf of Mexico, caused heavy thunderstorms and flooding in parts of thirty eight Texas counties on October 15 to 19. The flooding was worst around the San Jacinto and Trinity River basins, and in coastal areas. Rainfall totals ranged from 8 in (200 mm) to more than 28 in (710 mm).[14] The rain levels caused 100-year floods at nineteen stations. Several records were broken, some of which had stood since 1940. In the case of the Lavaca River near Edna, it broke a record set in 1936.[15] The flooding destroyed 3069 homes, heavily damaged 6560, and damaged 6148 others. Railbeds and roads sustained damage, while broken gas and oil pipelines caused spills and environmental damage in the Lower San Jacinto River and Galveston Bay. Twenty-two people died due to effects from the storm. In total, the flooding in southeastern Texas caused 700 million (1995 USD) in damage.[14] On October 18, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) declared the worst-affected areas a disaster area.[16] After the declaration, FEMA received 26,000 applications for disaster assistance and approved 54 million (1995 USD) in aid.[14] [edit] Lack of retirement Member Since: 24-a de aŭgusto Posts: 0 Comments: 3886

683. Vincent4989 10:03 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
Current day 1 outlook: Mushroom. Current day 2 outlook: Triangular flag placed sideways. Current day 3 outlook: Small, half eaten mushroom. Lurk mode activating.... Lurk mode activated. Lurk Cam booting.... Lurk cam booted. Starting Lurk XP... Lurk XP started. Now lurking. Member Since: 13-a de novembro Posts: 2 Comments: 728

685. HurricaneHunterJoe 10:20 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
so Beatriz is inland and still on the nnw course? whats anyone picking... dissapation over land or gonna go with official NHC forecast? Member Since: 18-a de septembro Posts: 0 Comments: 2690

686. Hurricanes101 10:21 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
Quoting alfabob: There is very minimal banding and the lopsided feature is another sign of annular development. Moisture in the surrounding area will continue to be pulled into the center and a circular flow will begin to surround it; that is what that v in the convection means, it is being rapidly pulled. There is already a dense moisture field in the center covering most of the eye. Beatriz is not even close to an annular storm Member Since: 10-a de marto Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

687. HurricaneHunterJoe 10:25 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
that trof up north does seem to have some uuuummmph Member Since: 18-a de septembro Posts: 0 Comments: 2690

689. Vincent4989 10:39 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
Quoting alfabob: There is very minimal banding and the lopsided feature is another sign of annular development. Moisture in the surrounding area will continue to be pulled into the center and a circular flow will begin to surround it; that is what that v in the convection means, it is being rapidly pulled. There is already a dense moisture field in the center covering most of the eye. It's not becoming annular. The spiral rainbands should be gone. Member Since: 13-a de novembro Posts: 2 Comments: 728

690. Tropicsweatherpr 10:48 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
Good morning to all and happy first official day of summer. I woke up to thunder, not a common thing in the early morning. A wave is moving south of PR combining with a shortwave trough causing the inestability. By the way,13.35 inches have fallen in June, to keep adding up the new record. Member Since: 29-a de aprilo Posts: 64 Comments: 8200

691. islander101010 10:50 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
character just pulling your feathers speaking of annular there was a donut that made landfall in new jersey back in the 50 or 60s Member Since: 11-a de septembro Posts: 0 Comments: 2968

692. CybrTeddy 11:05 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
Beatriz is defiantly not going annular. Maintaining strength, maybe even weakening. Member Since: 08-a de julio Posts: 253 Comments: 20251

693. Vincent4989 11:11 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy: Beatriz is defiantly not going annular. Maintaining strength, maybe even weakening. Wait, what? Member Since: 13-a de novembro Posts: 2 Comments: 728

695. traumaboyy 11:12 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
Quoting KoritheMan: Thanks! Good evening, Ron. I hope you don't mind if I call you that? Don't mind at all.....been buzy savin the world!! How is the hurricanader doin?? Member Since: 18-a de aŭgusto Posts: 0 Comments: 2178

696. bohonkweatherman 11:22 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr: Good morning to all and happy first official day of summer. I woke up to thunder, not a common thing in the early morning. A wave is moving south of PR combining with a shortwave trough causing the inestability. By the way,13.35 inches have fallen in June, to keep adding up the new record. More than I have received in 13 months Member Since: 05-a de julio Posts: 0 Comments: 1348

697. CybrTeddy 11:32 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
Quoting Vincent4989: Wait, what? Look at the structure, look at how the CDO has become elongated from what it was. Here's an IR to prove that. Heavy land interaction. Member Since: 08-a de julio Posts: 253 Comments: 20251

699. DDR 11:35 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr: Good morning to all and happy first official day of summer. I woke up to thunder, not a common thing in the early morning. A wave is moving south of PR combining with a shortwave trough causing the inestability. By the way,13.35 inches have fallen in June, to keep adding up the new record. wow,nice... i'm at 10 inches,expecting 3-4 over the next 2-3 days. Member Since: 27-a de aprilo Posts: 13 Comments: 1475

700. CybrTeddy 11:37 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
...CENTER OF BEATRIZ RIGHT ALONG THE COAST... 5:00 AM PDT Tue Jun 21 Location: 19.4°N 105.0°W Max sustained: 90 mph Moving: NW at 13 mph Min pressure: 977 mb Member Since: 08-a de julio Posts: 253 Comments: 20251

701. islander101010 11:37 GMT je la 21an de junio 2011
most interesting feature today is the system offshore cape hatteras speaking of donuts Member Since: 11-a de septembro Posts: 0 Comments: 2968

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