TD 14 likely to become Maria; new Gulf of Mexico system brewing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 13:32 GMT je la 07an de septembro 2011

Share this Blog
24
+

Tropical Depression Fourteen formed yesterday from a strong tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa early this week, and is headed west-northwest towards an encounter with the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Satellite loops show a large a steadily organizing system with plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity, good upper-level outflow to the north and west, and some respectable low-level spiral bands beginning to form. TD 14 is probably a tropical storm now, and is very likely to be named Tropical Storm Maria later today. Water vapor satellite images show that 95L is embedded in a very moist environment. Ocean temperatures are near 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to sustain a tropical storm. With wind shear predicted to remain low to moderate the next five days, the atmosphere expected to stay moist, and ocean temperatures predicted to gradually warm, TD 14 should generally show a strengthening trend. Curiously, most of the intensity forecast models show little strengthening of TD 14, so NHC is keeping their intensity forecast lower than is typical for a storm in these conditions at this time of year.

The track forecasts for TD 14 from the various models agree that the storm will affect the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, though there are some differences in forward speed, resulting in some uncertainty whether the storm will arrive at the islands as early as Friday night, or as late as Saturday afternoon. After it passes the Lesser Antilles, TD 14 has the usual amount of high uncertainty in its 5 - 7 day track forecast. The models are split on how strong the steering influence a trough of low pressure along the U.S. East Coast will have. The ECMWF and UKMET models prefer a more southerly track for TD 14 through the Bahamas towards the U.S. East Coast, while the GFS, NOGAPS, and HWRF models predict a more northwesterly track, with a potential threat to Bermuda. It's too early to guess which track the models will eventually converge on. Climatology favors a track that would miss land, with Dr. Bob Hart's track history pages suggesting TD 14 has a 22% chance of hitting Canada, 19% chance of hitting Bermuda, and an 11% chance of hitting North Carolina.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 14.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 96L
A cold front swept into the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas behind Tropical Storm Lee on Monday, and has stalled out along a line from Tampa, Florida to Mexico's Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy thunderstorms have begun to build along the tail end of this front in the Bay of Campeche, and this disturbance has been designated Invest 96L by NHC. Latest visible satellite loops do not show that 96L has a closed surface circulation yet, but buoy and surface observations along the coast of Mexico suggest that there may be a large-scale counter-clockwise circulation present over the Bay of Campeche. Sustained winds at Buoy 42055, about 100 miles to the northwest of the suspected center of 96L, were northeast at 27 mph at 6:50 am CDT this morning. Water vapor satellite loops show that here is a large area of very dry air from Texas to the north of 96L, and this dry air may interfere with 96L's development. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled for this afternoon into 96L.

Most of the computer models develop 96L into a tropical depression in the next 1 - 2 days, and these same models did very well at anticipating the formation of Tropical Storm Lee in the Gulf of Mexico last week. Given the moderate wind shear, warm waters, and presence of an old cold front to serve as a nucleus for development, I give 96L an 80% chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next tow days, a bit higher than the 60% probability NHC is going with. Steering currents are weak in the Bay of Campeche, making for a lot of uncertainty in where 96L might go. The only model predicting a U.S. landfall is the ECMWF, which predicts 96L might hit between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. A more popular solution is for the storm to meander in the Bay of Campeche for many days, and eventually make landfall on the coast of Mexico between Veracruz and Tampico. None of the models is hinting at a track towards Texas, and the intense dome of high pressure associated with their record drought and heat wave will tend to discourage any tropical cyclones from making a Texas landfall over the coming seven days.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia continues to the northwest as a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. Latest satellite loops show that dry air has eaten into the southwest side of the storm. The computer models continue to agree that a low pressure system over the Eastern U.S. associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee will turn Katia to the north. As the storm moves northwards past North Carolina, Katia will get caught up in west-to-east moving winds associated with the jet stream, and taken northeastwards out to sea. No land areas are in Katia's cone of uncertainty, and Katia's outer rainbands should remain just offshore from North Carolina, New England, and the Canadian Maritime provinces at the point of closest approach. Bermuda may see a few rain showers from Katia, but the storm will not cause hazardous weather there. The main impact of Katia will be a multi-day period of high surf leading to beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. The East Coast is lucky that Tropical Storm Lee came along, since Lee helped to create the steering pattern that will keep Katia from hitting the U.S.


Figure 2. GOES-13 image of Hurricane Katia and the remains of Tropical Storm Lee, taken at 11:45 am EDT Tuesday September 6, 2011. At the time, Katia was a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Laboratory.

Heavy rains from Lee create significant flooding, tornadoes
Tropical Storm Lee is no more, but its remnants are marching slowly northeastwards along a stalled cold front, bringing torrential rains. Fortunately, the dry soils that were present before the event started have helped keep river flooding in the minor to moderate range. No river is currently at major flood stage as a result of rains from Tropical Storm Lee. Soils are at near-average moisture levels in Central Pennsylvania, where Lee's remnants are expected to drop 3 - 5 inches of rain over the next two days. These rains should cause moderate but not major flooding in Pennsylvania. Also of concern is the potential for tornadoes today. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has logged 40 tornado reports over the past four days from Lee, including two in North Carolina yesterday. Most of these tornadoes have been weak EF-0 and EF-1 twisters. A tornado that hit Cana, Virginia at Sunday night ripped the roof off of a gas station and injured two people. More tornadoes are likely today over coastal Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and Southern New Jersey, where SPC is predicting a "Slight Risk" of severe weather.

Lee's heaviest rain amounts, by state, as of 4 am CDT today:

Holden, LA: 15.43"
Waveland, MS: 14.11"
Fyffe, AL: 12.94"
Cleveland, TN: 12.22"
Rome, GA: 11.01"
Milton, FL: 10.03"
Blowing Rock, NC: 7.18"
Fancy Gap, VA: 6.77"
Cranks Creek Reservoir, KY: 5.49"
Andover, NJ: 5.06"
Montgomery, NY: 4.23"
Pittsfield, MA: 3.90"
Bluefield, WV: 3.76"
Bridge City, TX: 3.12"
Keene, NH: 3.64"
Hagerstown, MD: 3.60"
Norwalk, CT: 3.20"
Wilmington, DE: 2.63"
Woodford, VT: 2.63"
Washington, DC: 2.42"

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1070 - 1020

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30Blog Index

1069. 7544
ok nate goes into mex how does this effect maria now a dif trof to push her away now not the same as lee and katia models can drive u nuts lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We got Nate
We got Grothar :-}

Gott sei dank das du wieder hier bist! Onhe dich sind die Kinder Frech.......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
Too hard of a turn west damn it





you need too chill out
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1065. SQUAWK
Quoting Grothar:


And the thought just occurred to me that if you left, so would the IQ. (Only a true buddy could say that)


OK, now we know he is feeling better!!! LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nate has the benefit of upward motion over the general area he's currently located in. The rest of the Atlantic...not so much.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the track with TS nate is all overe so even no its showing a MX hit that may chang when the storms be come stronger
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Too hard of a turn west damn it

Member Since: 14-a de julio Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
1059. dmdhdms
Quoting mobhurricane2011:
what time central timeis 00z, probably a dumb question but i dont know anything about zulu time


CDT is -5 from Zulu time.....When back to CST it will be -6.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SamWells:


Weather Underground spent a lot of money designing that "Hide" button for us, but yeah there's a lot of kids, punks, students, and trolls who make little messes everywhere like little puppy dogs.


Don't forget the adults, everybody seems to always blame the kids.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
ECMWFEPS still show a wide range of possibilities from the eastern to central GOM.

which models will be the first ones to have the new info in them, the ones thatcome out at 7pm cst, or the ones that come out at 1am cst
Member Since: 29-a de aŭgusto Posts: 0 Comments: 152
1056. HCW
Quoting MoltenIce:
I think they're still generating it.


It's been out for 30 minutes and I have already posted it twice :)
Member Since: 10-a de aŭgusto Posts: 0 Comments: 1409
Quoting Grothar:


So was I. Thanks, Dak. So, nobody knows where these storms are going yet?


Only the trolls, Grothar. Only the trolls. ... Other than that, there have been some excellent guesses.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting whattheheckhappened:
can we all stop about nate its not comming to the conus neither is katia or maria next season please
But, people live in Mexico!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I can't believe the next storm is Ophelia already.. Man what a pace we have been going at. Already 3 named storms into September and it's only the 7th.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Grothar!!!!!!! Great to see you back! How are you doing?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1050. HCW
Member Since: 10-a de aŭgusto Posts: 0 Comments: 1409
so we have TS Nate...and more and more do i get pissed with the NHC...Maria WILL strengthen further, not sure how far but she WILL, WILL strengthen to some extent. mark these words
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Oh sorry, we're clearly using the wrong maps here. I forgot you're using the map that only shows the CONUS as the only place on the Earth. Do people not live in Mexico? And are you really that dense to call all storms this year garbage when a 10 BILLION DOLLAR DISASTER Hurricane Irene hit the United States? TELL it to people who lost there homes in Irene that it was a garbage storm. Tell it to people who live in PR that Irene was a nothing storm, because that's what your implying. Your not a troll, but your sure sounding like one right now.


+1...or +5 like you have right now. :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting interstatelover7165:
The NHC hasn't released it yet. or have they? Anwser my question, WU!
I think they're still generating it.

Current number stands at:
14-2-2
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aerojad:
Trolls around here wouldn't be satisfied unless there were simultaneous cat 5 strikes on NOLA, Miami, and NYC. It's not entertaining unless there's thousands dead.

/annoyed lurker


Weather Underground spent a lot of money designing that "Hide" button for us, but yeah there's a lot of kids, punks, students, and trolls who make little messes everywhere like little puppy dogs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1045. Drakoen
ECMWFEPS still show a wide range of possibilities from the eastern to central GOM.

Member Since: 28-a de oktobro Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
1044. Grothar
Quoting Dakster:


GROTHAR!!! Glad to see you back. We were all worried about you.



So was I. Thanks, Dak. So, nobody knows where these storms are going yet?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:



heading for MX
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1041. HCW
Quoting interstatelover7165:
The NHC hasn't released it yet. or have they? Anwser my question, WU!


yes they have check out my last post for it
Member Since: 10-a de aŭgusto Posts: 0 Comments: 1409
Nate is setting up the stage for the Caribbean system



Member Since: 14-a de julio Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
And I can't believe I missed Grothar coming back, welcome back Gro!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: 23-a de septembro Posts: 14 Comments: 11215
Quoting Ameister12:
How is Nate gonna deal with all this dry air? Just curious.

One pixel at a time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1035. emcf30
Quoting Grothar:



I know how you feel!


Good to see you back my friend. Hope all is well
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting interstatelover7165:
The NHC hasn't released it yet. or have they? Anwser my question, WU!

It's not on the NHC site, but here ya go.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1033. docrod
Quoting miguel617:
Link, Here you go.


thank you - I trust him a lot too. take care.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1032. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
TCNA number coding
Japan Meteorological Agency
2011 Typhoon Season
================================================= =========

01NONAME - April 4, 2011
02AERE - May 6, 2011
03SONGDA - May 20, 2011
04SARIKA - June 9, 2011
05HAIMA - June 17 2011
06MEARI - June 21, 2011
07MA-ON - July 11, 2011
08TOKAGE - July 15, 2011
09NOCK-TEN - July 25, 2011
10MUIFA - July 26, 2011
11MERBOK - August 3, 2011
12NONAME - August 3, 2011
13NONAME - August 10, 2011
14NANMADOL - August 23, 2011
15TALAS - August 23, 2011
16NORU - September 2, 2011
17KULAP - September 7, 2011

---

14 named cyclones...

Atlantic is as busy as the West Pacific with advised cyclones. What is going on?

LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
where is the nhc cone of doom
The NHC hasn't released it yet. or have they? Anwser my question, WU!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Mexico sounds good to me. And looks good.


Oh sorry, we're clearly using the wrong maps here. I forgot you're using the map that only shows the CONUS as the only place on the Earth. Do people not live in Mexico? And are you really that dense to call all storms this year garbage when a 10 BILLION DOLLAR DISASTER Hurricane Irene hit the United States? TELL it to people who lost there homes in Irene that it was a garbage storm. Tell it to people who live in PR that Irene was a nothing storm, because that's what your implying. Your not a troll, but your sure sounding like one right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Which models? XTRP? BAMM, LBAR. How about LMAO


Umm, no. How about the CMC bringing it to AL/FL line at the 12z run. How about the European 00z run bringing it to MS/AL. How about loads of ensembles?
Member Since: 15-a de julio Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting Grothar:


And the thought just occurred to me that if you left, so would the IQ. (Only a true buddy could say that)
Ouch!
(good one. Among your best, in fact.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting A4Guy:


I am NOT calling you a wishcaster...but you say this about every storm that is forecast to curve. Do you really think you see somehting the NHC doesn't see? That's not to say models won't change - but the large-scale pattern is in place, and we have not seen the high push far west this year...plus, we have seen constant troughing.


It's obvious by looking at the steering.. I'm not saying it's gonna hit the USA, but may effect Canada.. Perhaps Nantucket/Cape Cod a bit more then originally thought.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
Thanks, Nice being back. I can't leave you guys alone for a minute. Soon as I leave, I come back and see you tracking 3 storms. Well, looks like more coming. And thanks for all the kind words. I really mean it.



Yes, it seems that your leaving is worse than Dr. Master's going on vacation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
Thanks, Nice being back. I can't leave you guys alone for a minute. Soon as I leave, I come back and see you tracking 3 storms. Well, looks like more coming. And thanks for all the kind words. I really mean it.



Nice to see you back and to read your post - awesome graphic there thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting docrod:


where did you find that image please - yes I love his dry humor.
Link, Here you go.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1022. WxLogic
18Z NAM (Prod) @84HR we'll see if P22L manages to survive and cause this:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dewpoint of 76 F at the surface right at the front:


(Click for full size)


IF Nate sets up well, the dry air entrainment will be limited and the surface moisture is certainly there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ameister12:
How is Nate gonna deal with all this dry air? Just curious.


If you remember DON, the storm will push valiantly again the dry air and then go poof near the coast when cooler water gets mixed up, sheer will rip it apart, and the dry air pushes back at the same time.

Different kind of DOOM, eh?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1070 - 1020

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Clear
62 °F
Sennuba