U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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morgaŭ
Day Three

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acus01 kwns 290048 
swody1 
Storm Prediction Center ac 290047 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0747 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017 


Valid 290100z - 291200z 


..there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms from central 
Oklahoma south-southwestward across the Edwards Plateau region of 
Texas... 


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across much of 
Oklahoma and a large portion of Texas... 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms surrounding the 
slight risk area... 


... 
Numerous severe storms will persist across the parts of the southern 
Great Plains this evening and into the overnight hours. Very large 
hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes are likely. 


... 
Several clusters of strong/locally severe storms are ongoing at this 
time across western portions of Texas and Oklahoma this evening. 
One main cluster of storms -- now crossing western North Texas and 
adjacent southwest Oklahoma -- is the result of a congealing of 
earlier/more isolated supercells. This band will continue shifting 
north-northeast, with damaging winds possibly likely emerging as the 
primary risk, along with hail and perhaps a tornado. This 
convection will spread across western and central Oklahoma over the 
next several hours, possibly reaching eastern portions of the state 
overnight. 


Meanwhile farther south, a few isolated cells are ongoing west of a 
roughly cds/abi/sjt line, ahead of an evolving band of storms moving 
east out of the transpecos and South Plains region of West Texas. 
This band of storms -- extending in a more loosely organized fashion 
north-northwestward into northeast New Mexico -- is evolving along 
the Pacific front. The storms will continue to organize linearly 
and spread east through a moderately unstable environment across 
western and central Texas over the next several hours -- ingesting 
isolated cells occurring ahead of the line. While these 
leading/isolated cells -- such as a lone supercell near drt -- will 
remain capable of producing very large hail and possibly a tornado, 
damaging winds and inch- to Golf Ball-sized hail will be the primary 
risks within the organizing line. 


.Goss.. 03/29/2017 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


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acus11 kwns 290458 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 290458 
txz000-290630- 


Mesoscale discussion 0364 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1158 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017 


Areas affected...parts of central Texas 


Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 96... 


Valid 290458z - 290630z 


The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 96 
continues. 


Summary...risk for strong, potentially damaging wind gusts and 
isolated severe hail will continue overnight across much of south 
central Texas. A new watch may be needed east of ww 96 within the 
next couple of hours. 


Discussion...intense line of storms appears to be accelerating east 
of the Edwards Plateau region at 50+ kt, with 40+ kt ambient south 
southeasterly flow at 850 mb contributing to strong easterly system 
relatively inflow. This seems likely to maintain the evolving 
convective system, despite the presence of substantial mid-level 
inhibition. Beneath steep lapse rates associated with the warm 
elevated mixed layer, the boundary layer continues to slowly moisten 
ahead of activity (surface dew points increasing through the 
mid/upper 60s), supporting sizable cape. 


Severe hail will remain a possibility in strongest cells, while 
potential for strong surface gusts also continues. This may begin 
to spread east of the watch into areas near/west through north of 
College Station as early as 07-08z. 


.Kerr.. 03/29/2017 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...hgx...fwd...ewx...sjt... 


Latitude...Lon 31769864 32379741 32269577 31139516 30299675 29669767 
29099937 30589873 31769864