U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day Three

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Storm Prediction Center ac 240110 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0810 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017 


Valid 240100z - 241200z 


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from portions of 
northern West Virginia east into central New Jersey... 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from portions of 
the middle-Atlantic region into southern New England... 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over portions of 
the southeast u... 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from the 
arklatex west across southeast New Mexico... 


... 
Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible tonight 
from portions of the Ohio Valley east into the northeast U.S. A few 
severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will also be possible 
across parts of the southeast states and from the arklatex into the 
Southern Plains. 


A frontal boundary, punctuated by convective outflows, extended from 
the lower Great Lakes into the Southern Plains at 01z. Surface low 
pressure, the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy, was located over 
north-central Kentucky. In areas near/south of the front 
unperturbed by convection, a moist/weakly buoyant air mass remains 
in place. Aloft, broadly cyclonic mid-level flow exists from the 
central/northern plains east across the mid-Atlantic region and New 
England. Stronger low- and mid-level flow will gradually shift east 
into portions of the mid Atlantic and northeast states overnight. 


..Ohio/Tennessee Valley into the northeast u... 
Reference mesoscale discussion number 1142 for latest short-term thinking 
some risk for organized storms is expected to persist into the 
overnight hours as the cold front moves steadily east and the 
surface low over northern Kentucky accelerates northeast in 
proximity to the front. Although instability will generally be 
weak, strengthening wind fields will result in increasing deep-layer 
shear in the 45-55 kt range overnight. Weak impulses aloft, 
possibly convectively modulated, will lift northeast across the 
region providing subtle large-scale ascent. High-resolution guidance 
continues to suggest additional thunderstorm development overnight, 
possible in short line segments, in an environment favorable for 
damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. Will maintain the slight risk 
overnight for this scenario. 


..north Georgia west to arklatex... 
Reference mesoscale discussion number 1143 for latest short-term thinking across the 
arklatex region. Otherwise, will maintain marginal risk areas for 
isolated damaging wind potential with ongoing storms, and some 
potential for additional development later this evening. 


..central/North Texas and southern Oklahoma... 
An increase in thunderstorm development is anticipated later this 
evening and tonight in association with weak isentropic ascent north 
of the frontal boundary. Effective shear will be sufficient for some 
degree of storm organization posing a risk for isolated strong winds 
and hail. 


.Bunting.. 06/24/2017 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


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sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 240514 
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Mesoscale discussion 1144 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1214 am CDT Sat Jun 24 2017 


Areas affected...central North Carolina 


Concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely 


Valid 240514z - 240715z 


Probability of watch issuance...20 percent 


Summary...an isolated wind damage threat may develop across central 
North Carolina over the few hours. However, the threat is expected 
to remain marginal and weather watch issuance is not expected. 


Discussion...radar imagery shows the remnants of Cindy moving 
eastward across the southern and central Appalachians. A couple 
bands of convection are ongoing across western Virginia extending 
southward into western North Carolina. The airmass ahead of this 
convection is very moist with surface dewpoints in the 70s f across 
much of North Carolina which is resulting in a corridor of moderate 
instability across the Piedmont of North Carolina. MLCAPE values are 
estimated in the 1000 to 2000 j/kg range from near the NC-SC 
Stateline extending northeastward into southeastern Virginia. In 
addition, WSR-88D vwps at Roanoke, NC shows a strong deep-layer 
shear profile with 0-6 km shear of 50 to 55 kt and substantial speed 
shear in the lowest 1km above ground level. This may support an isolated wind 
damage threat as the line segment moves eastward into central North 
Carolina over the next couple of hours. The latest cam solutions 
suggest that the line that is currently in west-central may persist 
for a couple more hours and then weaken. This seems reasonable and 
weather watch issuance remains unlikely due to the short duration 
that is expected for any wind damage threat. 


.Broyles/dial.. 06/24/2017 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...rah...ilm...rnk...cae...gsp... 


Latitude...Lon 35007822 34747989 34798055 35228086 35988002 36407917 
36097801 35007822