U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day Three

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acus01 kwns 160025 
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Storm Prediction Center ac 160024 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0624 PM CST Thu Nov 15 2018 


Valid 160100z - 161200z 


..no thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous 
United States. 


The progressive shortwave trough will continue east/northeast 
through tonight to early Friday, as it tracks across the central 
Appalachians to the northern mid-Atlantic states and southern New 
England. At the surface, a cold front has moved east of the NC 
Outer Banks and will also continue to move southward away from FL, 
with any associated thunderstorm development remaining offshore away 
from the contiguous United States. 


.Peters.. 11/16/2018 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


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acus11 kwns 152140 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 152139 
maz000-riz000-nhz000-ctz000-nyz000-vtz000-njz000-paz000-160345- 


Mesoscale discussion 1650 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0339 PM CST Thu Nov 15 2018 


Areas affected...Pennsylvania...New York...southern New England 


Concerning...heavy snow 


Valid 152139z - 160345z 


Summary...areas of heavy snow will continue across Pennsylvania and 
northern New Jersey late this afternoon. Snow will also continue to 
develop across southeast New York and southern New England over the 
next few hours. 


Discussion...the latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low 
in the lower Ohio Valley with anticyclonic southwesterly mid-level 
flow over the northeast. A pronounced dry slot is located across the 
central Appalachian Mountains. As the upper-level low continues to 
move eastward, bands of moderate to heavy snow will continue to 
organize ahead of this dry slot and move northeastward across 
Pennsylvania and New Jersey late this afternoon. Snow will increase 
across southeast New York and in southern New England over the next 
few hours as the bands move into the region from the southwest. 
Strong isentropic ascent will support heavy snowfall within the 
heavier parts of the bands with snowfall rates reaching 1 inch per 
hour in some areas. 


As warm advection continues and the dry slot moves northeastward, 
snow will changeover to sleet and freezing rain across much of 
central and eastern Pennsylvania extending eastward into northern 
New Jersey and the New York City vicinity. 


.Broyles.. 11/15/2018 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...gyx...box...okx...aly...phi...bgm...buf...ctp... 
pbz... 


Latitude...Lon 42747639 43007375 42667129 41677094 41387128 41197181 
41047224 40827291 40507373 40347423 40187521 40117686 
40147808 40707899 41687921 42437804 42747639