Tropical Weather Discussion

axnt20 knhc 182334

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
634 PM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

Tropical weather discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2315 UTC.

...Special features...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward 
across the Caribbean during the next day or so, which will 
tighten the pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures
inland over Colombia. This will result in gale-force winds pulsing
each night along the coast of Colombia and portions of the 
southwestern Caribbean through mid-week. Please refer to the 
latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO 
headers fznt02 knhc/hsfat2, or at website 
https://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/text/miahsfat2.Shtml for more details.

...Monsoon trough/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through W Africa near 06n10w and 
extends to 02n20w. The ITCZ continues from that point to the 
coast of South America near 02s44w. Scattered moderate convection
is along the monsoon trough between 10w-20w.

Gulf of Mexico...

The tail end of a frontal boundary extends across the basin. It is
analyzed as a cold front from 30n83w to 26n91w, then it becomes
stationary from that point to 21n95w. Low stratus and fog are
noted northwest of front. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh
to strong northerly winds north of the fronts, while gentle to
moderate southerly winds prevail across the remainder of the

The cold front will reach from Tarpon Springs, Florida to the 
central Gulf to near 26n94w tonight where it will completely 
become stationary. The front will then lift north toward the
northwest Gulf states through Tuesday evening before moving off 
the Texas coast again early Wednesday and stalling over the
northwest Gulf through the end of the week. Expect strong to near
gale-force easterly winds north of 22n and west of the front 
through Tuesday morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds are 
expected west of the cold front on Wednesday.  

Caribbean Sea...

Please refer to the special features section above for more 
details about the Gale Warning in effect over the south-central 
Caribbean waters near Colombia.

Recent scatterometer pass and surface observations indicated 
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds prevail over much of the 
basin. Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands and S of 
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico moving quickly west with the 
tradewinds. Dry air in the mid-to-upper levels of the atmosphere 
continues to dominate the region.

Strong to near gale force winds are expected over
the S central Caribbean through the weekend, reaching minimal 
gale force along the coast of Colombia each night through mid-week.
Strong winds will expand northward to Hispaniola adjacent waters 
through the weekend and westward past Jamaica starting Tuesday 
night as strong high pressure builds north of the area. Strong to
locally near gale-force easterly winds are also expected across 
the Caribbean waters west of 85w, including the Gulf of Honduras,
through the week. 

Atlantic Ocean... 

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1023 mb 
high near 27n67w, and a 1025 mb high near 28n38w. This pattern 
maintains gentle to moderate winds across the western Atlantic, 
and moderate to fresh winds over the central and eastern 

The ridge will prevail across most of the basin maintaining the 
same scenario. A cold front will move off the NE Florida coast 
this evening, then stall over the waters north of 27n Tue. The 
western part of the front will lift north by Tuesday night, while 
the eastern part is forecast to move southeasterly until 
dissipating over the southeast waters by mid-week. A surface ridge
will build again and prevail through Friday.

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